I am coming in a little late on this, but here goes. 50 years from now bicycle manufacturing will be monopolized by the "Big 3": Giant, Trek and Ford. Yes Ford. There will be no other auto companies to acquire and bicycles will probably be conspicuous consumption items much like fifty-thousand dollar SUV's that never see stone driveways let alone the wilderness. The "Evil Kingdom" (Shimano) will have swallowed up Campagnolo and every other component maker that was left, all the while making transmissions for Ford. Prices of bicycles will have hit the stratosphere with diamond-studded cranksets taking the place of pantographing and quadruple pivot brakes (still mounted to brake bridges) will be made of Platinum. Limited Production runs will be 50,000+. Bicycles will only be able to be worked on by Shimano authorized dealers because they will be the only ones allowed to purchase the Shimano-only tools. The UCI will be the world governing body of bicycling, forcing the industry to make only diamond frames and use only 700c wheels for road bikes. Oooooooooh, there will be a few retogrouches still trying to carry the "lugged-steel" torch, but not many. Grant Petersen's children will be running Rivendell Bicycle Works and fretting continually about who they will get to build their frame line but being forced to use Shimano components in order to keep operating. Of course ANY bike from the past (including the previous model year) will be considered collectable because there will be so many people that anything will be collectable to someone. Fifty-year old Trek OCLV's will have all cracked and broken like my grandmothers vase collection. A massive recall will reach epic proportions-surpassing even the "Great Firestone Recall". Everybody on the Classic Rendezvous List will look back and wonder how anyone could have kept a bike for so long without getting bored. Topics will consist of spoke art and what to do with those old 10 speed chains. And Richard Sachs, Eisentraut, Brian Baylis, Peter Weigle, etc...... will all be considered underground radicals that tried to undermine the Bicycling Industry "Machine" because they refused to conform or use only Shimano lugs and tubing. There old catalogs will be outlawed and publically burned. Uttering there names will get you a night in jail. These old machines from the radicals will be collected by the UCI Police and stored in massive vaults in the town of Verbruggen. Record 10 Speed components will be on guarded display in the Smithsonian. We will still be riding though. Doing New Year rides and trying to overtake the rider up the road.
Don Andersen
>Hi all-
>
>I've been wondering about this for awhile and since we
>just entered a new millennia I thought it would be in-
>teresting discussion...
>
>I'm curious as to what everyone thinks will be vintage
>or considered vintage/collectable 50 years from now.
>
>In particular, out of the current crop of active frame
>builders -- especially the American's.
>
>Will Baylis, Eisentraut, Sachs, or Brown (limited pro-
>duction) be as sought after as a Masi or Cinelli is in
>todays world??? Maybe the Schwinn Fastback is what the
>old guys of the future will be lusting for since it is
>remembered as their first real racer...
>
>I guess the deeper question is what makes something or
>in this case a bike collectable?
>
>Sentimentality plays a role... Folklore or legend? The
>quality vs. quantity? One builder one frame? Artisian?
>The first bike I rode where I wasn't spit out the back
>of the fast local group ride;) Or, it was rode to Tour
>victory even though the decals said differently!
>
>Or, are these times gone forever and a classic will be
>just as prized in the future as now. In the age of big
>production it seems like a lot of the mystique is gone
>and all we are left with is CADD!
>
>I just can't see a bunch of guys reminiscing about the
>Trek OCLV that they shouldn't have sold...
>
>Mike Wilkinson