In paraphrase, Robert said buyers collect most and have most money to collect between ages 40-55. He also assumed they like to collect what they could only dream of buying around the age of 15. So as of 2005: subtract 40 and 55 from 2005, add 15 to both and you will know that bikes built between 1965 and 1980 will have the largest group of collectors at their peak buying power and so bring the most money in competitive bidding.
While my own personal experience of my collecting desires would move that consumer imprinting age of 15 to something more like 15-18, I do think you're collection model is on the nail head; that's why I bought my Raleigh International for me alone (I'm 52 and expect the peak run up is probably past) and that's why I bought my Vitus with the carbon fiber tubes glued to the 979 head tube/seat cluster to hold for a slightly younger fellow. It also explains why old school BMX bikes (late 70s early 80s) have started an accelerating up tick in value and why Schwinn Stingrays at least appear to have slowed in their escalation.
One could however argue variously where within the collectible vintage age range price peaks ought most likely to be expected.
So exactly what year should we start picking up Jan Ulrich Pinarellos and Lance Armstrong Treks? :-) I'd like to hear more opining by you regarding the graph that depicts a new bike reaching its eventual nadir in value before starting its upward bounce. And of course you'll have to figure in the carrying cost. :-)
Don Wilson Los Olivos, CA
Don Wilson
Los Olivos, CA
> Steven,
>
>
>
> Ok, just for fun I am going to approach yours as a
> somewhat rhetorical
> question and attempt to address it from an abstract
> macro viewpoint
> which is
> not necessarily specific to the Campy 50th
> Anniversary group that you
> mentioned in particular, but rather, offers an
> explanation which I
> believe
> has application far beyond that specific example.
>
>
>
> Realize that I am only speaking for myself here, and
> therefore, my input
> will perhaps be considered debatable by others who
> are certainly
> entitled to
> their own esteemed opinions. And if theirs happens
> to differ from mine,
> and
> they feel compelled to articulate such, I am always
> willing to listen to
> well reasoned thoughts sharing a differing
> perspective so long as the
> presentation of same abides the rules of mutual
> respect and civil
> discourse.
>
>
>
> My personal guideline with regard to profitable
> speculation in almost
> any
> type of collectible market (...whether that be
> bicycles, automobiles,
> pool
> cues, shotguns, hunting knives, watches, or almost
> anything else that I
> have
> ever dabbled in) is that some people (...certainly
> not everyone, but a
> substantial number none the less) eventually find
> themselves at a
> position
> in life where they have finally achieved a measure
> of financial success
> such
> that they are able to "go back in time" and
> basically attempt to
> purchase
> those meaningful items from their youth that they
> either once had, or
> more
> likely, wished that they once had. And while this
> is not in and of
> itself a
> particularly brilliant observation, it is VERY
> important in helping one
> to
> determine just where they might be best served to
> purchase and resell
> with
> intent to speculate in a collectors market.
> Implicit within the
> aforementioned guideline is the notion that there is
> an optimal time
> window
> during which the largest number of potential buyers
> will be active in a
> given market. This is simply due to the fact that
> one's age and income
> level will to a large extent be a prime determinant
> as to just what
> discretionary expenditures can be brought to bear in
> pursuit of such
> items -
> too young, and one's financial wherewithal is likely
> lacking, while past
> a
> certain age looms the prospect of fiscal restraint
> begot of retirement
> and a
> relatively fixed income. While a given item may be
> intrinsically
> collectible from the onset, its "life-cycle of
> value" often begins along
> a
> somewhat linear progression, then climb
> exponentially as demand
> resulting
> from burgeoning interest brought about in large part
> by generational
> demographics places undue pressure upon its
> dwindling and finite supply,
> and
> then finally cool down to progress in a linear path
> once again as that
> same
> demographic ages off leaving the market to only
> "serious" collectors of
> interest whose own age has little or no bearing on
> their pursuits.
>
>
>
> So, if one assumes that the optimal window of
> opportunity exists when a
> generation of individuals are somewhere between the
> ages of 40 and 55
> years
> old (...give or take a divorce, college tuition for
> your offspring, or
> elder
> care issues), then all one needs to do is analyze
> their prospective
> target
> niche and apply the simple principles of reverse
> engineering. In the
> instance of cycling related material, I would think
> that it is safe to
> assume a benchmark age of 15 as being that point in
> time when one is
> indoctrinated enough into our culture of consumerism
> to understand the
> concept of commercial desire yet are still not
> likely financially
> responsible enough to acquire everything that they
> truly covet. As of
> 2005
> (...using last year only for the sake of making the
> math a little
> easier),
> those who are at the end of the aforementioned
> generationally optimal
> target
> group would have been born in 1950 whereas those on
> the trailing end of
> that
> same group would have been born in 1965. Now, add
> 15 years onto each of
> those dates and you have the years 1965 and 1980
> respectively - and that
> to
> my own way of thinking is the current optimal sales
> targeted date range
> for
> speculation on any cycling related material that you
> may wish to
> consider
> fencing on eBay (...or just about anywhere else for
> that matter).
> Obviously, material dating both prior to and just
> after that range
> (...such
> as the Campy 50th Anniversary group you brought to
> everyone's attention
> which only falls outside the proposed model range by
> a scant three
> years)
> may be suitable for speculation as well, but your
> prospective target
> audience is prone to be somewhat smaller due to the
> fact that they have
> either "aged off" or are "too young" to have come of
> age as collectors.
> In
> fact, those profiteers amongst us who are not
> limited in their cycling
> interests by strict adherence to the CR timeline,
> and specifically those
> who
> are both actually in the "bike biz" and who have the
> financial
> wherewithal
> to do so, would be well advised to stock up now on
> items produced during
> the
> 1980's and even more so the 1990's since many can be
> purchased on the
> relative cheap inasmuch as they have not yet matured
> with respect to
> what is
> likely to be their peak demand.
>
>
>
> For those among us who are intent on finding the
> exact pieces and parts
> which were originally affixed to our various bikes,
> whether that be as
> they
> came from the factory so to speak or as we actually
> rode or raced them,
> the
> devil is and always will be in the details - and
> that
=== message truncated ===
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