Mike, A couple of suggestions for what they may be worth. In our business (primarily wine auctions these days) we tend to be able to draw from a number of past sales from previous wine auctions worldwide for any given wine however some wines have very little previous sales history so in those instances coming up with auction estimates becomes more interpretive and based on data for similar wines or other similar vintages. In either scenario the auction estimates are expressed as a range i.e. a low and a high estimate which gives prospective purchasers a useful range to consider when deciding what a given wine is likely to sell for based on the histories. Of course in an auction environment something is only worth what two or more people on a given day are willing to pay for it and despite historical prices a wine one might think would be hotly contested may inexplicably pass and other wines may end up selling for way over the estimates. Nonetheless, the estimates serve a useful purpose and with regard to your guide, over time as a greater track record (no pun intended) is established estimates would become that much more empirical. I don't know what records of vintage lightweight sales you have been keeping or have access to but perhaps it would be worthwhile to come up with a survey by maker for CR list members to fill out and return to you indicating what they paid for a given marque and model and the date they secured it. I would like to think you would get a good response. Of course condition information should be taken into consideration and it would be informative to delineate whether a given sale was for a restored or original example. Recording frame sizes would also help to provide an accurate picture. Wine bottles have condition information to consider as well such as fill levels (due to leakage or evaporation) but the range of estimates makes allowance for this. I know you have addressed some of these considerations before (for the bikes, not wine) with the previous versions of your guide but the more standardized and comprehensive you can make this, the more useful it will be. Good luck. I know you have a lot going on with your Herse project but I would love to see an up to date and expanded guide. The good news is that I suspect that you now have access to much more information about a much greater range of marques than in the past.
Edward Robert Brooks Managing Director Edward Roberts International Auctioneers of the Fine and Rare 1262 West Winwood Drive Lake Forest, Illinois 60045 Phone- 847.295.8696 Facsimile- 847.295.8697 Email- email@example.com Website- http://www.eriwine.com
-----Original Message----- From: firstname.lastname@example.org [mailto:email@example.com] On Behalf Of firstname.lastname@example.org Sent: Friday, October 05, 2007 6:40 PM To: email@example.com; Classic Rendezvous Subject: Re: [CR]PX-10 Vintage Bike Prices-Price Guide Needed and Mike Kone'sGuide?
Hi CR folks,
Yes the price guide update I'm supposed to write is on the slow track - especially with time I'm putting into Rene Herse Bicycles Inc.
The big stumbling block to the price guide is the variability in the market. For the same reason folks want a price guide, it is also extremely difficult to develop. In a sense, average (or mean) price is easy to come up with, but the stinker is wrapping my brain around capturing price variability. The market for vintage road bikes in general is extremely thin. It isn't like trying to place a value on an excellent Leica M3 single stroke, or a MCintosh MC240 amplifier. Some of those collectibles change hands multiple times in a day - how many of the Peugeots like the one in question change hands? - and how many of the exact same vintage with the cool plastic stuff yet with the alloy rail saddle and the mod 63 crank? And in that size? I bet there are perhaps NO close comps!
The kicker is if a bike has something slightly cool that captures the imagination of only two folks on ebay, then for less than the cost of adding a bunch of options to a mid-line BMW automobile someone can pay a seemingly crazy sum for a particular bike.
My latest thoughts are to come up with "gut" what it should typically sell for prices, and then rate particular bikes with the relative probablilty that the bike might sell for much more.
I have worked on some price-value-templates, and it gets mighty ugly pretty fast. At some point I might bite into the project again (I had played with it only a couple of weeks ago), but to do it right is no picnic.
Mike Kone in Boulder CO
> I gather many feel that the price lately paid for a PX-10 on eBay was
> Perhaps it was.
> But, in the absence of a current price guide, how is one to know what the "right
> price" for a vintage bike really is?
> The topic of a current price guide for vintage bikes generally is not well
> received on CR-but many who decry the price guide idea are quick to find fault
> with some poor soul who has "paid too much".
> Most times on CR inquiries about price of bikes and components are held in
> contempt-until a high price is reached-then comments abound-almost always
> derogatory ones. It would seem that one can't have it both ways. If the rules
> or convention prohibit such inquires on CR that's fine-but there should be
> somewhere to find such information. Some info is present on eBay itself, but
> it's too limited to be really useful.
> I think such a vintage bike price guide is badly needed-almost every other form
> of collectible has a current price guide.
> Some collectibles have several.
> George Hollenberg MD
> Westport, CT, USA
> George Hollenberg MD
> CT, USA