I tend to share Brian's notion that we may be seeing the beginning of a renaissance in traditional frames, and I certainly hope it's true. And I don't believe Brian meant that traditional frames would "take back" the bicycle market, but rather that there is a small but nevertheless perceptible increase in interest in traditional bicycles, classic design and hand-crafted frames. This is probably due, at least in part, to the fact that the bicycle market is changing. While being somewhat flat overall, there are certain areas within the industry that are on the increase. These tend to be niche-markets (recumbents and tandems come to mind). Even "city" or "town" bikes seem to have found an increasing audience. There's a small shop in my area that has done quite well by recognizing this and targeting that specific market (and not trying to compete in others). I believe the high-end of the road bike market is also fairly healthy. That's not only because gonzo racers want the latest and greatest, but also because there is a larger, more mature (or is that just older) segment of the market that can afford it. I believe that segment is growing and I believe their interest in "classic" and "traditional", and in design-work in general, is also increasing.
And I think that will fuel the renaissance. As others have noted, this trend is evident in other areas besides bicycles. Appreciation for art and craftsmanship is increasing in lots of areas, particularly in how it's applied to "useful" and "practical" items. Classic contemporary furniture designs by Eames, Nelson, van der Rohe, Panton and others are now back in production, primarily to compete with the "vintage" market. Michael Graves is designing kitchen utensils for Target. But Sam Maloof, surely a true master craftsman, still hand crafts some of the finest furniture in the world. Museum quality. Why shouldn't the bicycle benefit from this movement? Sure, the custom builder will have to share the market with larger concerns that "manufacture" for the market trend, but that will be good for the market as a whole. There will always be those who seek out the original, custom segment of the market. As Brian notes, maybe it's the simplicity of the bicycle frame that will not only help keep the art alive, but also encourage others to take up the torch (pun intended), and respond to the market.
Hey, I can dream, can't I?
Wayne Bingham
Falls Church, VA